Verified paper-trade record · MLB game lines

Positive-EV sports alerts, graded in public.

A quantitative engine that finds mispriced sportsbook lines against sharp-market anchors, alerts them in real time, and grades every single alert against an independent closing line — in public, with nothing curated and nothing deleted.

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441 graded

clean sample · 130 required

+1.86pp

mean CLV vs independent close

+1.58 → +2.14

95% bootstrap CI (pp)

73.2%

beat the close

PASS

verification gate

Last updated 2026-10-18 20:31 UTC · rebuilds automatically every 15 minutes

Cumulative CLV (probability points) — every graded alert, in order

The tape — every graded alert, oldest → newest (up = beat the close)

How it works

Price against the sharp market

Live odds from a dozen books are devigged against sharp anchors (Pinnacle, exchange prices). When a book's line implies a probability materially below fair, that's a positive-EV candidate — and implausibly large "edges" are rejected as data artifacts, not celebrated.

Publish before the line moves

Surviving candidates are alerted with the book, line, price, fair probability, and edge — a handful per day, not a firehose. Every alert is logged at emit time; none can be quietly un-published.

Judged by the closing line

Each alert is graded against an independent closing price captured near event start, materially after the alert. Beating the close is the standard test of real edge — it cannot be faked by settlement luck.

Why you can trust the number

Independent closes only

A minimum time separation between alert and close is enforced. Alerts with no independent close are marked ungradable and excluded — never guessed in our favor.

The bad data is disclosed

Rows graded before 2026-07-24 used a flawed closer and are permanently excluded. We show you the cutover instead of hiding it — read the methodology.

A statistical gate, not vibes

The record is marked PASS only when the 95% bootstrap confidence interval of mean CLV sits entirely above zero on a large-enough sample — and a circularity fingerprint check guards against self-graded wins.

Straight talk

This is a paper-traded record of closing-line value — not booked profits. Volume is deliberately low (roughly five alerts a day, MLB game lines) because selectivity is the product. Books limit winners; lines move; past CLV does not guarantee future CLV. If that honesty reads as a feature, you're the member we want.

Questions

What exactly do members get?

Real-time access to every alert in the graded stream via a private Discord — the same alerts, at the same time, that feed the public record. No "premium picks" withheld from grading.

Why closing-line value instead of profit?

Short-run profit is mostly luck; CLV is the repeatable skill signal every professional bettor is measured by. A record that persistently beats the close is evidence of real edge; a profit screenshot is not.

Can I verify the record myself?

Yes — the record page lists every graded alert with its price, close, and CLV. Closing lines are public information; spot-check any row.